Collection
Forecast Future 2026
Bridgewater Forecasting Submission · Research Collection · 2026
I developed a five-system forecasting framework and twelve testable forecasts to examine where AI advantages compound—and where conversion bottlenecks prevent technological leadership from becoming strategic power.
The primary Work artifact is the forecasting system. Two Insights artifacts separate the open forecast register from the interpretive thesis so each can be read on its own terms.
Public and institutional sources only. Probabilities are scenario-calibrated research judgments, not certainties, investment advice, or claims of demonstrated forecasting accuracy. Forecasts remain open until their resolution horizons.
How the pieces fit together
- AI Power Conversion Chain Forecasting System
How the analysis was constructed: five-system architecture, methodology, bottleneck migration, and GitHub models.
- US–China AI Competition: Twelve Open Forecasts
What was forecast and monitored: probabilities, resolution conditions, stress tests, and calibration disclosures.
- From AI Capability to Strategic Power
What the findings mean: interpretive synthesis on layered US–China AI competition through 2031.
The most likely outcome is not a single AI winner but a layered system: the United States retains advantages in frontier capability and capital formation while China gains leverage through industrial deployment and physical diffusion.