Insights
Insights
Written interpretation, forecast analysis, and industry notes—each answering a distinct question.
Forecasting and Geopolitical Technology
US–China AI Competition: Twelve Open Forecasts
Document what was forecast, at what probability, and under which resolution conditions.
Twelve probabilistic forecasts with horizons, resolution conditions, source families, and stress-test context for US–China AI competition.
From AI Capability to Strategic Power
Interpret what the forecasting system and open forecasts imply for layered US–China AI competition.
Interpretive thesis on how AI advantages convert—or fail to convert—from models into deployment, capital, infrastructure, and geopolitical influence.
Payments, Digital Commerce, and Risk
Emerging Fraud and Payment Risk in Digital Goods
Explain why emerging digital-goods models require a different payment-risk strategy.
Industry analysis of why digital-goods business models require adapted payment-risk strategy—covering growth drivers, risk mechanisms, short-drama coin systems, control design, and commercial trade-offs.